The Showdown: TE vs. WR

Published May 7, 2010 at 1:38 a.m.
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I've had this on my mind for a couple of days and I've finally been able to get this out...

We've talked quite in depth about having a #1 WR on TST over the past week, mostly because of the Rams apparent lack of interest in finding one. This post isn't about that (I wouldn't want to make it and you probably wouldn't want to read the same thing over again anyway). Carneros had an option in his poll a few days ago that intrigued me, specifically the option about adding a better TE to make up for the lack of a true #1.

That got me thinking. Are teams more successful when they have a #1 Tight End to take pressure of the QB? Are they more likely to go to the playoffs then teams that have a WR who accumulates more stats? Does a team even need a #1 WR with a good tight end and does it make a difference? Well, lucky for you, I sifted through eight years of data to try and find an answer. Before I crunch the numbers, first I'll explain the ground rules:

• To be considered a "#1 Tight End," the player must have been in the Top 50 statistically for receiving yards. To be a team that has no "#1 WR", the Tight End must have also have been the top target for the team.
  
• To be a team that has a #1 WR instead and #1 Tight End, the team must have had a WR who accumulated more yards then the Top 50 TE. Only teams who had a tight end statistically in the top 50 for receiving yards were used.

There reason why I have "quotes" around #1 WR and #1 TE is because I'm not jumping into the murky waters of what exactly makes them a #1. For the sake of simplicity, you are a #1 TE if you're in the top 50 for yards, and a #1 WR if you were the top target for the team (more yards then the tight end).

Hit the jump to see the results.

*Note* the players are in no particular.

2009

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Health Miller	PIT	9-7	Santonio Holmes
Zach Miller	OAK	5-11	-
Kellen Winslow	TAM	3-13	-
Vernon Davis	SFO	8-8	-
Antonio Gates	SDG	14-2	Vincent Jackson
Jason Witten	DAL	13-3	Miles Austin
Dallas Clark	IND	11-5	Reggie Wayne

 

2008

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	2-14	-
Jason Witten	DAL	9-7	Terrell Owens
Owen Daniels	HOU	8-8	Andre Johnson
Chris Cooley	WAS	8-8	Santana Moss
Dallas Clark	IND	12-4	Reggie Wayne
Zach Miller	OAK	5-11	-
Antonio Gates	SDG	8-8	Vincent Jackson

 

2007

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	4-12	-
Jason Witten	DAL	13-3	Terrell Owens
Kellen Winslow	CLE	10-6	Braylon Edwards
Antonio Gates	SDG	11-5	-
Chris Cooley	WAS	9-7	Santana Moss
Owen Daniels	HOU	8-8	Andre Johnson

 

2006

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	9-7	-
Jason Witten	DAL	9-7	Terrell Owens
Kellen Winslow	CLE	4-12	Braylon Edwards
Antonio Gates	SDG	14-2	-
Chris Cooley	WAS	5-11	Santana Moss
Todd Heap	BAL	13-3	Mark Clayton

 

2005

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	10-6	Eddie Kennison
Antonio Gates	SDG	9-7	-
Jeremy Shockey	NYG	11-5	Plaxico Burress
Alge Crumpler	ATL	8-8	-
Todd Heap	BAL	6-10	Derrick Mason
Chris Cooley	WAS	10-6	Santana Moss
Jason Witten	DAL	9-7	Terry Glenn

 

2004

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	7-9	-
Jason Witten	DAL	6-10	Keyshawn Johnson
Antonio Gates	SDG	12-4	-
Eric Johnson	SFO	2-14	-
Randy McMichael	MIA	4-12	Chris Chambers
Alge Crumpler	ATL	11-5	-
Jermaine Wiggins	MIN	8-8	Nate Burleson

 

2003

Tight End	Team	Record	#1 WR
Tony Gonzalez	KAN	13-3	-
Shannon Sharpe	DEN	10-6	Rod Smith
Todd Heap	BAL	10-6	-

 

So there you have it folks. For the past eight years, these are the teams and players that met the criteria. Before I spit any more numbers out, take a look at these charts. For the most part, the teams that had good records with the tight end as the one who had the most receiving yards for the season were either a) San Diego (Antonio Gates) or b) Kansas City (Tony Gonzalez). Sure, there are some other examples, a Todd Heap here, an Alge Crumpler there. But the fact that the two others constantly showed up is pretty a much a testament to how damn amazing those two players have been at tight end.

So! Enough jibber-jabber about the jaw dropping skills of Tony and Antonio. Here is what I found:

For teams that had a receiver who had more yards then a #1 TE, the overall record was:

237-179, which comes out to about 9.1 wins per season.

For teams that did not have a receiver who had more yards then a #1 TE, the overall record was:

133-139, which comes out to about 7.8 wins per season.

 

Granted, without Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, the latter numbers would be worse (about 6.5 wins a season). Even with them added in, teams that had a receiver as their #1 yardage guy on average won one more game per season then those teams that didn't. That doesn't seem like much, but a 9-7 record vs. a 8-8 record is light years apart when it comes down to the wildcard race. It's not easy to do at 9-7, mind you, but the only chance a team has at 8-8 is to win the division in this day and age of football, and even in the NFC West, that isn't easy.

Speaking of playoffs, I also calculated that out as well:

For teams that had a receiver who had more yards then a #1 TE, their chances of going to the playoffs where:

50% (13 out of 26 teams went to the playoffs) and the 13 times they didn't go, the teams average wins per season was 7.4

For teams that did not have a receiver who had more yards then a #1 TE, their chances of going to the playoffs where:

41% (7 out of 17 teams went to the playoffs) and the 10 times they didn't go, the teams average wins per season was 5.3

 

These numbers, to me, are much more dramatic. While the chance of going to the playoffs went up by 9%, the average wins per season of a team that didn't go to the playoffs but still had a WR to compliment the TE was 7.4, which is still quite impressive, as opposed to those that didn't have a WR to go with the TE (5.3). Of course, it's always hard to evaluate numbers on a scale that can include intangibles, but still. 5 wins and some change isn't something 31 teams out of this league would be hoping for. Excusing the Rams, of course.

So, while having a good (or great) tight end would be a great thing, the Rams need to add a number one receiver, not necessarily someone who is a prototypical player, but someone who can compliment the tight end. Do it for the fans. Do it for Sam Bradford. Do this and statistically, they will most likely have a better season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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